Today’s Twenty-Four looks at recent international travel trends in and out of Alberta* and explores possible implications for the tourism sector this year.

We noted last month that the ongoing trade war has been having a negative impact on the number of Canadians traveling to the United States. Albertans* are no exception in this regard.

Through April, the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. via the Calgary and Edmonton international airports was down 5.6% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.

Aided by a lower exchange rate, the number of U.S. travelers flying into Calgary and Edmonton rose 13.9% YTD.

The statistics for entry by road are not as up-to-date as they are for entry by air, but they show the same pattern: the number of Canadians returning from the U.S. via Alberta roads was down 3.1% through March while the number of Americans driving into Alberta was up 1.8%.

Bottom line: Between the trade war and the exchange rate, more Americans are visiting Alberta and fewer Albertans are visiting the U.S.

From an economic perspective, this has two implications:

First, more Albertans staying in Alberta because they are not travelling to the U.S. and more Americans coming to Alberta due to the favourable exchange rate will bolster tourism spending in the province.**

Second, the shift in the number of visits to and from the U.S. will affect the balance of international trade between the two countries in Canada’s favour. Money spent by Albertans visiting the U.S. is regarded as an import to Canada from the U.S. whereas American tourists spending money in Alberta is counted as an export from Canada to the U.S. As a result, the current trend in cross-border tourism is increasing Canada’s exports to the U.S. while decreasing its imports from the U.S., which will reduce Canada’s services trade deficit with the U.S.

*Travel statistics refer to the location of entry into Canada for Canadian residents, U.S. residents and non-U.S. foreign residents. As a result, while it is likely that many Canadians entering Canada via Alberta are Alberta residents, not all of them will be. At the same time, some Alberta residents may be returning to Canada via other provinces.

** This assumes the Albertans who would have normally gone to the U.S. do not travel to other countries. While there has been an uptick in return flights to Alberta from countries other than the U.S., the increase was less than the decrease in return flights from the U.S. over the first four months of the year. It also assumes that those same Albertans do not exchange their U.S. trip for a trip to another part of Canada or, if they do, this will be at least matched by visits to Alberta by other Canadians.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Including this year’s event, Canada has hosted the G7 summit seven times.

Today’s trivia question: Where is the longest runway in Canada?