New population projections released by Statistics Canada this morning show that Alberta’s population will grow by between 1.4 and 3.1 million people over the next 25 years and will eventually surpass British Columbia as the third largest province in Canada.*

Alberta’s population growth in all 10 growth scenarios considered by Statistics Canada is at least double the national average.  

Zeroing in on Statistics Canada’s “M2” medium-growth scenario,** Alberta’s population grows from about 5 million residents today to over 7.3 million in 2050. At 46%, Alberta’s population growth over the projection period is the highest of any province with the national population growing by a more modest 17%.  

Annual growth in Alberta will average 1.5% over the projection period compared to 0.6% nationally. As such, the M2 scenario assumes a return to a more typical growth pattern in Alberta rather than the spikes seen in 2023 (+3.9%) and 2024 (+4.7%) when the number of non-permanent residents spiked and the net gains from interprovincial migration were particularly strong.

The net gain from international migration is projected to account for half (52.1%) of Alberta’s population growth out to 2050 with net interprovincial migration accounting for 29.4% and natural increase (birth less deaths) accounting for the remaining 18.5%.

Alberta’s stronger growth between now and 2050 is due to ongoing gains from natural increase (the only other provinces that see positive natural increase over the projection period are Saskatchewan and Manitoba) and net interprovincial migration (B.C. and Alberta are the only two provinces that see a gain from interprovincial migration).

*In 9 out of the 10 growth scenarios considered by Statistics Canada, Alberta’s population surpasses B.C.’s by 2044 or earlier. In the M2 medium-growth scenario, it happens in 2038. In the M5 medium-growth scenario, the gap gets smaller, but Alberta does not catch up to B.C.

**The M2 medium-growth scenario is often used as a base case. Detailed information on the various scenarios can be found here.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The Truth Social platform was launched in February 2022.

Today’s trivia question: What was the population of Alberta in 1906 (the year the first census was conducted after Alberta became a province in 1905)?