For the first time on record (dating back to 1946), Canada experienced a noticeable quarterly population decline* due to a pullback in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs)**.  The third quarter decrease of 0.2% meant Canada had 76,068 fewer people on October 1 than it did on July 1. While these are preliminary estimates and subject to revision, for now Statistics Canada is reporting a decline. Canada’s population stood at an estimated 41,575,585 on October 1.

The national population decline reflects a major shift in federal immigration policy. Last year, the federal government announced that it was sharply reducing the share of NPRs to 5% of the population. The policy shift was reinforced in federal Budget 2025, which sets lower immigration targets for 2026-2028 for permanent residents to 380,000 annually (down from 395,000 in 2025). Further, it notes that temporary resident admissions will fall from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026, and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.

Looking across the country, the population declined in every single province last quarter except for one - Alberta. Thanks in large part to another net inflow from other parts of Canada - the 17th consecutive quarter of net interprovincial gains - Alberta’s population grew 0.2%. While that’s the slowest increase since the pandemic, it’s in sharp contrast to the outright declines elsewhere.

Today, there are more than 5 million Albertans (though, as regular population clock watchers, we already knew this from back in May). The official estimated tally as of October 1 is 5,040,871.  

Where did Alberta’s growth come from?

In the third quarter of 2025, Alberta’s population grew by 11,525. Net interprovincial migration of 5,652, natural increase (births minus deaths) of 5,676 and net immigration of 10,802 more than offset the net outflow of 10,605 NPRs.   

Alberta leads in annual population growth

Over the latest one year period (October 1, 2024 to October 1, 2025), Alberta’s population grew by 83,796 for a nation-leading growth rate of 1.7%. That’s well above the national increase of only 0.2%.

In fact, Alberta accounted for all the population growth in the country over the last year. Excluding Alberta, Canada’s population shrank slightly by 0.01% (or -2,343).  

Persistent inflows from other provinces

Why is Alberta’s population growing faster than other provinces? The main reason is interprovincial migration.

Over the last 12 months, people came predominately from Ontario and B.C., though the gains were widespread from all provinces. The net inflow has slowed, but remains strong. We have explored this issue in detail, showing that people are coming to Alberta for different reasons than in the past. It’s not driven by the typical energy boom, and our view has long been that relative housing affordability is playing a major role this time around.

Another factor is a higher rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) in Alberta. In the third quarter, Alberta recorded the second largest natural increase after Ontario.  

Broad-based population slowdown on fewer NPRs

Canada saw its largest quarterly decline in NPRs (-176,479) on record in Q3. Losses were highly concentrated in Ontario and B.C., with the largest drop coming from international students holding a study permit.

Canada admitted 102,867 immigrants in the third quarter—the lowest third quarter reading since 2020.

As for Alberta, there was a net loss of 10,605 NPRs last quarter, with the net gain from immigration easing to 10,802.

Implications

Our December forecast called for a sharp slowdown of the population to only 1.5% growth in 2026 - down from 2.5% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2024. Today’s readings are consistent with that view. While easing, we see Alberta’s growth continuing to exceed the national average driven by interprovincial migration, natural increase and a smaller expected decline in NPRs (Alberta’s share of NPRs in the population is 5.6% vs 6.8% nationally).

Homebuilders have responded to the population boom with record housing starts expected this year. This has been fueled by multi-family units, as builders continue to play catch-up. We see home construction as one key factor pushing Alberta’s economic growth ahead of other provinces this year.

The slowdown in population growth is itself a headwind to economic growth, putting downward pressure on housing and consumer activity. But it will also help pull down the jobless rate, with fewer job seekers for every job available. We see the unemployment rate falling to an average of 6.5% next year, down from an estimated 7.2% in 2025.

*In the third quarter of 2020, population growth was essentially flat at -0.00%, but technically there was a decline of 1.2K people (in a population of 38 million at the time, its hard to call that a decline).

**Non-permanent resident refers to a person from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada and who has a work or study permit, or who has claimed refugee status (asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups). Family members living with work or study permit holders are also included unless these family members are already Canadian citizens, landed immigrants (permanent residents) or non-permanent residents themselves.

Answer to the previous trivia question: John Candy plays a polka-band leader in the 1990 Christmas film Home Alone.

Today’s trivia question: What is the origin of the name of the poinsettias we often see at this time of year?