Please note: There will be no Twenty-Four tomorrow as we honour Remembrance Day. 

Big news! We finally have the official provincial GDP numbers…but they're for last year! While we do get a preliminary estimate in May, it's pretty wild that we have to wait almost a full year—eleven months!—to get the final, official GDP number for Alberta (and the other provinces) every year. This really highlights why other, more timely measures, like the nowcasting index our team is working on, are so important.

Alberta's economy showed robust performance in 2024, achieving real GDP growth of 3%, according to Statistics Canada. This solid growth surpassed both the 2.5% recorded in 2023 and our own forecast of 2.7%.

Consumer spending contributed the most to the increase, which was fairly broad-based. Total household consumption rose by 2.3%, primarily due to higher expenditures on items such as housing, motor vehicles, and furniture. This growth alone contributed one full percentage point towards Alberta’s total GDP growth, consistent with the significant population increase of 4.7% (220,000) recorded in the last census year.

Net exports (exports less imports) of goods and services to all international and interprovincial destinations accounted for the second-largest contribution to GDP growth. This was primarily a result of strong oil production, which rose 4.1% last year (helped by the Trans Mountain Expansion), resulting in a 4.9% gain in real international goods exports.

Residential construction spending saw a significant increase, surging by 13.6%. This marked the fastest growth rate since 2021, and, like consumption, the rise was largely due to the effects of Alberta's record population growth last year.

The picture was not favourable for business investment. We will not be getting the latest industry numbers on this until later, but overall spending on non-residential structures, machinery and equipment and intellectual property products pulled back for the second straight year by 3.2%.  

The Canadian economy grew by 2% last year. Alberta really stood out, ranking third among all provinces, just after PEI (+3.8%) and Nova Scotia (3.1%). That's a strong showing, especially since we beat out major economies like Ontario, BC, and Quebec—all of which grew less than the 2% national average.

Despite robust economic growth, Alberta's GDP increase in 2024 was insufficient to outpace population growth. This resulted in a decline in per capita GDP—a key indicator of economic well-being and standard of living—for the second consecutive year.

Alberta's per capita GDP dropped by 1.6% in 2024, hitting its lowest level since 2021 during the pandemic. This decline was partly a consequence of Alberta leading the country in population gains, recording a substantial 4.7% increase. Across Canada, Alberta was not alone; only PEI, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador managed to avoid a per capita decline last year. Despite back-to-back declines, Alberta still held the highest real per capita GDP in the country in 2024, sitting 26% above the national average.

With a clearer picture of what happened last year, we can provide a better estimate of this year’s economic output and a more accurate forecast of what to expect in 2026 and 2027. Our next outlook for the Alberta economy will be ready in early December. With trade headwinds blowing and population growth slowing, it’s likely that Alberta’s GDP growth will be closer to 2% than last year’s 3%. 

Answer to the previous trivia question: The last time an Alberta team won the Grey Cup was in 2018 when the Calgary Stampeders defeated the Ottawa Redblacks.

Today’s trivia question: Why is Remembrance Day held on November 11?