Today’s Twenty-Four takes a look at recent retail spending trends in Alberta.

We witnessed retail revenues reach an all-time high in January. Since then spending levels have moderated but a surge in vehicle purchases (specifically since March) have managed to push revenues up by 5.8% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis from the first 5 months of last year.

While YTD sales remain upbeat, there is a price effect embedded in that. Adjusting for inflation*, growth was a more modest 4%.

Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline sales, core retail sales moved up a bit in May and posted a strong 4.6% YTD increase with clothing, sporting and general merchandise retailers driving the majority of the increases.

To get a more timely reading, we looked at ATB’s consumer Mastercard transactions data. A lower May reading was in line with the retail sales report but the data suggests that spending (excluding motor vehicles and parts) ticked up (on a three-month moving average basis) slightly in June, in line with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for the month at a national level.

The Bank of Canada’s Survey of Consumer Expectations in Q2 showed that consumers have also become wary of tariffs escalating inflationary pressures, especially on prices of motor vehicles, in future months. Having said that, a growing number of consumers are willing to pay up to a maximum of 10% more for goods made in Canada than for similar goods made in the United States.

Given past inflation spikes, new tariff-related price pressures, slowing population growth and a cooling labour market, our outlook calls for relatively weak real (adjusted for inflation) consumer spending growth of 1.7% for Alberta this year. We expect growth to climb to 2.2% in 2026 and finally surpass Alberta’s expected population growth for the first time since 2022.

*Deflated using the national retail price index

Answer to the previous trivia question: Edmonton has the highest office tower in the country outside Toronto.

Today’s trivia question: The Toronto Blue Jays are currently in top spot in the American League’s East Division. What year were the Toronto Blue Jays founded?