Today’s Twenty-Four explores Alberta's retail spending trends in 2025.

Alberta's retail store spending* saw significant growth late last year, reaching a new high in January 2025. Since then, sales have generally levelled off, sitting about 1% below the January peak as of July.

Despite this, spending remains strong compared to the previous year. Year-to-date (YTD) retail spending increased by 5.3% over the first seven months of last year. A major factor in this rise was sales at motor vehicle and parts dealerships, which climbed 9.8% and contributed 52% towards the total increase.

New car sales in Alberta have consistently risen since March, reaching a peak in July with a nearly 11% YTD increase in units sold. This growth is primarily due to overseas-manufactured vehicles, while North American vehicle sales have declined. Several factors contribute to this surge, including consumers accelerating purchases to preempt potential tariff-related price hikes, pent-up post-pandemic demand, population growth, lower borrowing costs, and relatively stable prices despite tariffs and counter-tariffs affecting the auto sector since April.

Conversely, zero-emission vehicle** (EV) sales have seen a sharper decline this year, down 7.4% YTD. Beyond the additional costs of at-home chargers and the lack of reliable charging networks, other factors have impacted EV sales. These include the end of the federal EV rebate in January and ongoing tariff pressures. In response to the challenges, the federal government recently paused its EV mandate for a 60-day policy review.

Meanwhile, outside of the auto sector, sales at general merchandise and clothing, shoes, and jewelry stores have provided the largest boost in retail categories so far. This was only partially offset by a 2.5% decline at gasoline stations, a result of lower gasoline prices attributable to persistently lower oil prices and the carbon tax removal this year. ATB’s consumer Mastercard transactions data indicates an uptick in sales (excluding autos) for August.

Despite these positive indicators, there are signs of consumer fatigue. When adjusted for inflation, real retail spending has been largely muted this year and stood about 1% below March levels in July.

Looking ahead, the removal of counter-tariffs on various consumer goods is expected to ease some price pressures. However, the labour market has softened and the impact of front-loading on purchases in response to tariffs will fade. As such, we expect retail spending to level off for the rest of the year. Retail sales are forecast to increase by 4% both this year and in 2026.

*All data in this report has been adjusted for monthly seasonal fluctuations.

**Zero-emission fuel types include battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Today marks the fall (autumnal) equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. The spring (vernal) equinox takes place in March.

Today’s trivia question: In what year were the Toronto Blue Jays founded?