A dyed-in-the-wool optimist might see the current economic damage brought on by U.S. trade policy and the uncertainty surrounding it as a temporary blip that, with a little more time and some deft negotiating, will be behind us without leaving too much of a mark.

Economists, however, are turning more pessimistic as the trade war continues.

Released today, a new Reuters poll found that 60% of the 167 economists asked about the risk of a global recession this year said it was high or very high.

Recession-inducing or not, tariffs are seen as problematic, with 92% of a larger group of 300 economists polled saying tariffs have a negative impact on business sentiment.

U.S. trade policy has been fluid since Trump took office with, for example, high “reciprocal” tariffs announced and then paused. Overall, however, there are a lot more tariffs in place than before, including a 10% U.S. tariff on most countries.

In this context, three-quarters of the economists polled by Reuters have cut their 2025 global growth forecast, bringing the median down to 2.7% from 3.0% in the January poll.

The growth forecast for Canada was downgraded to 1.2%, down from 1.8% in the January poll.

Adding to the gloom is the fear that tariffs will undermine the progress made getting inflation back under control.

According to Reuters, the “progress that central banks have made over the past couple of years in taming the worst global inflation surge in decades by raising interest rates in quick succession is also expected to stall due to tariffs, which economists agree are inflationary.”

It’s important to pay attention to the negative outlook because we have to be realistic about what might be next with regard to the impact of tariffs.

With that said, there is a more optimistic take: because the trade war is entirely policy-induced, a change in U.S. policy could end the war as quickly as it started.

The main takeaway is that the tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding them are already taking a toll on markets, consumer confidence, and investment decisions (e.g., Dow’s Path2Zero project has been put on hold) and this is dampening the outlook for economic growth.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Canada’s largest federal riding by area is Nunavut at 2,093,190 square km.

Today’s trivia question: Born on this day in 1926, who is the author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel To Kill a Mockingbird?