In Davos, Switzerland Prime Minister Mark Carney said the global economy is in the “midst of a rupture,” not a transition. We are shifting away from an era of predictable, rules-based integration toward one defined by rivalry, resilience, and power politics.

For Canada, this means a greater urgency towards building a stronger, more powerful economy.

I recently had the pleasure of collaborating with Peter Tertzakian, Founder and President of  Studio.Energy, on their new series: Canada’s Economy Under Siege; GDP as a Defence Strategy. In today’s Twenty-Four, we share the key takeaways from Part 1, looking at why Canada’s economy has grown bigger, but not necessarily stronger, and why building economic muscle through productivity is our most essential strategy for long-term resilience.

Bigger, not stronger

In the world of economics, we often treat gross domestic product (GDP)—the total value of all final goods and services produced by a country—as a passive statistic. But as the global environment shifts, Tertzakian notes "economic pressure has replaced military force as a primary tool of statecraft," making our economic output a target rather than just a number on a spreadsheet.

GDP should be viewed through a more strategic lens, and with broader understanding. It is no longer just a measure of prosperity; it is a proxy for a nation’s resilience, and ability to navigate a world of competing interests.

For Canada, the core challenge is that the economy has grown in size, but not nearly as much in strength. For years, our growth has leaned heavily on population expansion, consumer spending, and government activity rather than investment and building new export capacity that bolsters productivity.

While headline GDP has risen, our horsepower (or GDP-per-person and labour productivity) has lagged considerably. Economic growth has dominated the national conversation, yet what that growth actually means is rarely examined.

The productivity gap

We’ve discussed for some time that getting back to productivity is the only way to sustain our standard of living. When we under-invest in machinery, technology, infrastructure, R&D, and other productivity-enhancing tools, the economy stays busy, but it doesn't build the muscle needed to compete in the current era of global economic disruption.

“A strong, resilient GDP, supported by diversified access to markets and critical resources, becomes a country’s first line of defence in a geoeconomic world. It provides optionality, competitive staying power, and strategic leverage in negotiations” says Tertzakian.

Canada’ strategy for both growth and resilience can’t be about hunkering down; it’s now about creating a more competitive and attractive environment for capital. In a world where economic warfare targets a country's financial jugular (GDP), a strong, productive economy provides the strategic leverage to negotiate from a position of strength.

The path forward

With Prime Minister Carney’s national ambition to “build the fastest-growing economy in the G7,” per capita GDP growth becomes a measure of competitiveness and strategic capacity for Canada.

As Peter puts it, what that means now is that there’s “a requirement that we collectively understand what GDP measures, how it is constructed, and [identify] the strategic levers that can be exercised in an aggressive world of economic coercion.”

You can continue your GDP learning journey by reading more of Studio.Energy’s series, a collaboration with ATB Economics, here. The next issue (coming soon), “GDP 101,” will break down what drives GDP and why investment, trade, and productivity matter more than headline growth.

On behalf of ATB Economics, thanks to Peter Tertzakian and the Studio.Energy team for collaborating with us on this exciting new project. 

Answer to the previous trivia question: Marie-Philip Poulin is the captain of the Canadian women's hockey team at the 2026 Olympics.

Today’s trivia question: What is the seating capacity of the new Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena that was finished just in time for the 2026 Winter Olympics?