Edmonton — Alberta’s economy faces another year of trade adversity in 2026, but is expected to once again outpace the national economy in growth, according to ATB Financial’s latest Economic Outlook. The report, titled “Crosscurrents: Alberta’s economy in 2026 and 2027,” projects the province’s real GDP will grow by 2.1 per cent next year and 2.4 per cent in 2027, higher than the 1.6 per cent and 1.8 per cent expected for the national economy. The province is forecast to resume GDP growth in per capita terms next year. 

The Outlook highlights that, while trade uncertainty remains an ongoing theme, the focus is shifting more to execution on promises by Canadian policymakers to build faster, export overseas, and trade more freely within the nation. 

Rising oil production and enhanced access to the Asian markets will continue to lift Alberta exports. More broadly, the Alberta economy will benefit from a lower U.S. effective tariff rate. Ongoing diversification in areas like aviation, food processing, tourism and technology also underpins the growth forecast. On the other hand, oil and gas capital spending is forecast to remain flat next year amid weaker oil prices, and trade tensions (including ongoing uncertainty about the future of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) are weighing on business investment. 

Population growth is expected to ease further next year, slowing the pace of consumer spending and housing activity. Housing starts will hold above historic norms, but fall from 2025’s record level. More balance will return to the labour market, with the unemployment rate now forecast to average 6.5 per cent next year, down from 7.2 per cent in 2025.

"Alberta’s economy has been fairly resilient to the trade shock —aided by a lower effective tariff rate, persistent migration, rising energy production and record housing starts" said Mark Parsons, ATB Financial Chief Economist. "However, trade uncertainty will continue to weigh on economic activity in Alberta ”, Parsons added. “The focus across Canada is turning to execution of plans to attract private sector investment, get shovels in the ground on major projects, and expand the nation's export markets."