Calgary — In a period of heightened global volatility, a joint report released today by Studio.Energy and ATB Financial’s Economics team reinforces that Canada’s energy export infrastructure remains critical to national economic strength. The study finds that building and filling incremental oil pipeline capacity could contribute an average of $31.4 billion (in 2017 dollars) to national real GDP annually between 2027 and 2035, and boost annual employment by 112,000.

The report, titled The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity, demonstrates that resource export infrastructure is a pillar of national strength. It highlights how increasing oil export capacity by 1.5 million barrels a day over time would help address chronically weak levels of business investment and exports, both of which have contributed to sluggish growth in GDP per capita in Canada.  

In an increasingly competitive global landscape, GDP is no longer just a measure of prosperity; it is a source of national leverage. By expanding export capacity to the West Coast, Canada can move beyond its current limited market access to become a proactive global participant, reaching high-demand markets in the Asia-Pacific region and strengthening resilience against economic coercion.

"Canada has an opportunity to supply a vital commodity to the world while strengthening our economy,” said Peter Tertzakian, Founder and CEO at Studio.Energy. “GDP growth does not happen by aspiration alone; it will require export infrastructure, production growth and the confidence to build."

Key Findings from the Analysis

• Between 2027 and 2035, the average annual lift to Canada’s real GDP is estimated at $31.4 billion.
• The report estimates the buildout will support an average of 112,000 additional jobs in Canada. The employment impact is expected to peak at 136,100 jobs during the height of construction.
• The GDP impact includes the construction of the Pathways Alliance carbon capture project, underscoring that Canada’s growth is driven by a commitment to being a preferred supplier of responsibly produced energy.

"New energy infrastructure doesn’t yield just a marginal gain for Canada’s economy—it’s a structural shift that will pay ongoing export dividends," said Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial. "Expanding our export capacity would fundamentally improve our national economic health and global standing at a time when Canada needs it most."

The full report is available here.

The estimates were based on construction and production inputs from Studio.Energy and modelling by ATB Financial’s Economics team.