May 3, 2024

Population growth, naturally speaking

With Canada’s population surging, most of the attention has been on immigration. There’s a good reason for that. International migration (including temporary residents) accounted for nearly 98% of Canada’s population growth in 2023. The remainder is what demographers call ‘natural increase’, simply measured as births minus deaths. The numbers are small and shrinking, thanks to an aging population and declining total fertility rates. Natural increase peaked in 1959, with the downward trend accelerating after 2009.

The national numbers mask a greater deal of regional variation, mainly reflecting different age structures. Of the 31,100 national population gain through natural increase, 16,350 came from Alberta and 16,770 from Ontario. Natural decline was experienced in B.C. and each of the Atlantic provinces, while Quebec was effectively flat (+300).