The Owl: Focused on Alberta’s Economy
Retail sales, unemployment rate, population growth, inflation, international trade—these are just a few of the economic trends the team makes sense of in The Owl.
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A whole lotta wholesaling going on in April
Building materials posted the largest month-over-month increase in April at 20.5% ($255.0 million) while farm products pulled back by 4.9% ($6.3 million)
Spiking inflation: Tempest in a teapot or actual storm?
The pandemic has created some unwanted excitement with the national inflation rate hitting 3.4% in April and 3.6% in May
Factory shipments in Alberta had a strong April
Year-to-date sales were roughly the same as they were in 2019 before the disruptive effects of the virus
Exports lost some steam in April, but still chugging along
Total exports were, however, 56% higher this April than the year before when plummeting oil prices and the pandemic were wreaking havoc with Alberta’s economy
Waiting it out: The pandemic and the tourism sector
Between border closures, other public health measures and hesitancy on the part of some potential travellers, the tourism sector has been hit particularly hard by the pandemic
A mix of sun and cloud: Alberta’s economic outlook
Many things are moving in the right direction, but it is important not to underestimate the damage that has occurred over the last 15 months
Bank of Canada leaves interest rate at 0.25% for now
The rate will be increased when the Bank feels it needs to tap the economic brakes, but it looks like the earliest this will happen is “sometime in the second half of 2022”
Crop and cattle prices going strong
The price improvement has been driven by tight global supplies and increased international demand
Oil and gas, forestry and construction added jobs in May
At the other end of the continuum were sectors still dealing with the impact of public health restrictions
Overall employment growth in Alberta was flat in May
On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment in the province contracted by 0.04% or about 1,000 jobs out of 2.2 million
Residential building permits had a strong April in Alberta
Residential permit value increased by 15.4 per cent in April compared to March with multiple dwelling buildings accounting for most of the jump
Alberta’s economy could use a cup of joe
Oil and gas capital spending is half of what it was four years ago
Number of Alberta businesses going in the right direction
Although still down from its pre-pandemic level by 2.1 per cent, the seasonally adjusted number of active businesses in Alberta rose for the ninth month in a row in February
Two-thirds of Alberta businesses optimistic when looking ahead 12 months
About 17 per cent of businesses said they are very optimistic, 51 per cent somewhat optimistic and 15 per cent not optimistic
Average earnings slip as lower paid workers return
Average weekly earnings in Alberta in March went from $1,238 to $1,208—a drop of 2.4 per cent compared to the previous month
Farming a bright spot in Alberta last year
While revenue was up for most crops including wheat, canola, barely and cannabis, it was down by 6 per cent for cattle due to disruptions related to the pandemic
Second and third wave temper consumer spending in Alberta
Consumer spending has been kept in check so far in 2021 by public health measures, caution on the part of consumers and the accumulated financial stress facing many families and businesses in the province
New home prices on the rise in Alberta
The average price of newly built homes in Alberta was on a downward trend before the pandemic, but has picked up some steam in recent months