The Owl: Focused on Alberta’s Economy
Retail sales, unemployment rate, population growth, inflation, international trade—these are just a few of the economic trends the team makes sense of in The Owl.
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Retail sales softening
When inflation is taken into account, year-over-year sales in July were down by 1.5% in Alberta
Home construction easing but still upbeat
Housing starts in Alberta stood at 33,586 units (SAAR) in August, down 8,662 units (-20.5%) from July but 2,627 units (+8.5%) higher than 12 months earlier
Job vacancies rose again in the second quarter
Employers in Alberta were actively seeking to fill over 100,000 vacant positions in the second quarter of 2022
Inflation down but not out in August
Despite the drop in the inflation rate, the Bank of Canada is still likely to hike interest rates with its trend-setting policy rate potentially rising by another 75 basis points
Wholesale revenues retreat across the board
Seasonally-adjusted wholesale revenues in Alberta declined by 2.9% in July, but remained 20.6% above the same month last year
Behind the wheel
Despite a drop in the number of vehicles sold, higher prices drove up the value of new vehicle sales in Alberta in July
Alberta factory sales growth jostled in July
After reaching an all-time high in May, factory sales in the province edged down by 0.7% in June and by 2.6% in July
Oil output holding near record high
Alberta’s oil production averaged near 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, just 1.7% shy of the historic peak set in November 2021
Exports took a breather as oil prices eased in July
With oil prices ticking down again in August, we expect a fairly similar story for Alberta’s exports in next month’s trade report
Musical chairs: Employment gains and losses by industry in Alberta
Eight sectors posted an increase in August while employment in the other eight decreased
Unemployment increased in Alberta in August
According to the latest Labour Force Survey results, Alberta’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate went from 4.8% in July to 5.4% in August
Running uphill
Alberta’s economy is on track to be one of the top performers in the country this year due to the boost it is receiving from strong commodity prices
Interest rates rise again
The Bank of Canada has increased its trendsetting policy interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.25%
Building permits still upbeat in Alberta
Construction intentions edged up in July and stood near the multi-year peak reached in May
The sun is shining on oil and gas investment
National oil and gas extraction spending continued to improve for the sixth straight quarter
Canadian economy grew again in the second quarter
Looking forward, growth is expected to slow over the second half of the year
More rain means more grain
Higher-than-average precipitation and more moderate temperatures in 2022 are expected help Alberta’s wheat production reach the highest level on record
Business confidence cooled in August
With inflation, interest rates and labour shortages weighing on the economy, it’s not surprising that business confidence is down from where it was last summer