Chart of the Week: How exposed is each province to new U.S. tariffs?

As always, sweeping conclusions on how events will impact Canada can be incomplete, or even misleading. This week’s announcement by President Trump that new tariffs will be applied is a perfect example. Details matter, and it turns out the impacts are very industry and region specific.

We put our estimate out on Tuesday by linking the 500+ products on the list to 6-digit HS codes using 2025 data. We found that about 14% of B.C. exports to the U.S. would be subject to tariffs; next most exposed is Quebec at 10% and Ontario at 9%. On the other end of the spectrum are Alberta and Saskatchewan at only 1%—thanks to energy and potash exemptions. Many Atlantic provinces are protected as seafood products are excluded. 

Why the massive variation? Each province has a very unique mix of products that are exported to the U.S. The items on the tariff list—like electronics, dairy, wood products, machinery, liquor, sporting goods—tend to come from the three most populous provinces.