The final trade results are in. With the arrival of December trade data this morning, we now have a tally of 2025 exports. Today’s Twenty-Four looks at Alberta’s export performance in 2025.

Not bad given the circumstances

The total dollar value of Alberta's international merchandise exports declined by 3.2% in 2025 after a 4.5% rise in 2024. That said, exports remained historically strong - the third-highest on record after 2022 and 2024.  

At the national level, exports fell slightly by 0.4%, with stronger overseas exports offsetting a 5.4% decline in U.S.-bound shipments. 

Lower oil prices the main culprit while tariffs weighed on certain sectors

Alberta's total export decline was overwhelmingly driven by the energy sector, which accounted for 82% of the aggregate drop. The value of energy exports decreased by 3.5%, primarily due to a 7.6% fall in oil export prices. This price drop overshadowed the positive impacts of record oil production and a stronger natural gas market.

Performance in the non-energy sector was mixed, resulting in a collective 2.4% decrease in export value. Although metal ores & non-metallic minerals and consumer goods saw increases, these gains were offset by declines in industrial chemicals and agri-foods. 

U.S. tariffs—specifically those on autos, primary metals and softwood lumber—weighed on Canadian exports to the U.S. last year. Alberta faced a lower effective tariff burden overall, but some key sectors were still impacted. A clear illustration of this is the 7.2% drop in Alberta’s wood product exports to the U.S. last year, hitting the lowest level since the pandemic. (Note: A detailed analysis of tariff-affected sectors is currently delayed due to holdups in trade data, possibly stemming from a U.S. government shutdown.)

Diversification strides

Alberta made progress exporting to overseas markets last year, with non-U.S. exports up 22%.   Alberta’s share of international exports destined for the U.S. fell to its lowest level since 2020 (86%).

The main diversification driver was energy. In particular, the completion of the TransMountain Expansion in 2024 led to another surge in oil shipments to Asia last year. While energy exports to the U.S. decreased by 7% in 2025, energy sales to other countries saw a dramatic 65% increase.

New Canadian export infrastructure has fueled substantial growth in energy shipments (oil, LNG, and propane) to Asia. The total value of Alberta exports to China jumped 41% last year, with Singapore (+82%), and Hong Kong (+156%) also seeing major gains.

Consequently, Hong Kong displaced South Korea to become Alberta's fourth largest export market last year. The three largest export markets remained unchanged: the U.S., China, and Japan.

What’s next?

Looking forward, market diversification efforts are underway with the federal and provincial government looking to strengthen partnerships with Europe, Asia and the Middle East markets. LNG Canada phase 1 is now operating, and more LNG projects are underway. The Alberta-Federal MOU looks to increase energy export capacity further to overseas markets. Prime Minister Carney has stated a goal to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade.

At the same time, the U.S. by far remains Canada’s largest market. Canadian exporters remain cautious and await more certainty as CUSMA is reviewed this year.