According to Statistics Canada’s live population clock, Alberta has just passed the 5-million mark!*

The population clock is a real-time model that uses demographic assumptions to fill in the gaps between the quarterly estimates. The last official quarterly release was in March when the population was estimated at 4,960,097 as of January 1, 2025.

That was a quick 1 million. Alberta added 1 million residents in just over a decade, after reaching the 4-million milestone in 2013 (October 1 estimate). International migration contributed the most over this period, but Alberta’s faster population growth relative to other provinces was driven by interprovincial gains and natural increase (births minus deaths).

While Alberta’s population has been rising consistently over the past decade, it went into overdrive in the last two years. In 2023, the population expanded by 3.9% or 173,767 people. In 2024, that number was 4.4% (+204,209).** Driven by interprovincial migration, Alberta has been leading all provinces in population growth for six quarters in a row.

How many years to the next million? Based on the medium-growth projection from Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, the province will reach 6 million by 2036 and 7 million by 2048. Between now and the 7-million mark, Alberta’s annual population growth is projected to average 1.5% with growth coming from international migration, other parts of Canada and natural increase:

• Although it will come down from recent highs as the inflow from non-permanent residents*** normalizes, international migration will remain the largest source of new residents.
• It’s the most volatile source of growth, but interprovincial migration is expected to be the second largest contributor to population increase.
• Natural increase (births less deaths) will be positive every year, even as most provinces are already experiencing natural decrease.
• The vast majority of the population growth will be concentrated in Alberta’s four census metropolitan areas (Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge and Red Deer).

By enlarging its market, expanding its labour pool, driving housing demand, increasing ties with other parts of the country and the world (while creating  a sense of dynamism at home), Alberta’s population growth will remain a key driver of its economic growth.

Stay tuned for an in-depth look at Alberta’s population growth and its economic implications coming out soon.

*More precisely, the model-based clock turned 5 million at 11:18PM MST last night (I was up to watch it happen - don’t ask).

**Based on mid-point of each year (July 1).

***Statistics Canada defines non-permanent residents (NPRs) as people from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada who fall into one of the following categories: 1) work and/or study permit holders, as well as the family members of those permit holders; and persons whose permits are in the process of being renewed; 2) asylum claimants, protected persons, and related groups.

Answer to the previous trivia question: At 64.7%, Prince Edward Island had the highest seasonally-adjusted employment rate among residents ages 15-24 in April. The rate in Alberta was 54%. (The employment rate for a particular group (age, gender, marital status, etc.) is the number employed in that group expressed as a percentage of the population for that group.)

Today’s trivia question: In what year did Alberta reach one million residents?