In this week’s The Seven…

• Marching forward - Housing starts stay hot
• Finding a home - Resale frenzy moves north
• Alberta’s tech success - How did it happen?
• Wait and see - Bank of Canada buys time
• Interesting Fact: Homes for people
• Chart of the Week: Alberta’s tech sector growth

A relatively quiet week on the tariff front. So let’s talk about something else. This Seven zeros in on two industries that continue to outperform in Alberta: home construction and tech. They are examples of silver linings in these crazy times. ATB’s Miranda Mantey takes an in-depth look at the rise of Alberta’s tech sector. She asks ‘how did it happen?’ and interviews key players in the space to find out. We also dig into the Bank of Canada’s atypical, scenario-based Monetary Policy Report and try to sort out what it all means.

Relentless - Home construction keeps booming in Alberta

Reading the trade war news, you’d think everything was heading in the wrong direction. Not so.

Take home construction in Alberta.

Alberta recorded 53,000 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) housing starts last month. This was the second month in a row starts were over 50K, and well above the five year average 36,700.

How strong is homebuilding in Alberta? Alberta accounted for 23% of all starts in Canada in the first quarter of 2025 with only 12% of the population. Alberta is now running, on a trend basis, ahead of the housing boom of 2006-07.

This is a good thing. With the population soaring (Alberta continues to lead in growth), Alberta needs homes to support affordability. Fortunately, builders have stepped up to the plate.

As the chart below shows, multi-unit dwellings accounted for the largest portion of new construction. The spike in housing starts since mid-2023 has been led by Calgary, though Edmonton has also gained momentum over this period.

We now see upside to our March forecast. We called for 40,000 starts this year, though that partly reflected larger concerns about U.S. tariffs and countertariffs on Canada raising costs. Given recent data and a lighter touch on U.S. tariffs than originally thought, we are tentatively increasing our forecast closer to 45,000.

Heading north - Edmonton catches Calgary’s real estate fever

We’ve been on the ‘chasing affordability’ kick for a long time. One of our early calls was that we’d see an ‘inside Alberta’ edition of the broader theme of Canadians coming to Alberta in search of cheaper housing.

Recall the first wave was Calgary. The CMA has seen population growth of 6% in each of the last two years. Explosive population growth translated into more expensive housing.

Now it’s Edmonton’s turn. As Calgary’s housing market cools, Edmonton’s is taking off.  Home sales were up 12% year-over-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2025 (vs. a 10% decline in Calgary). Benchmark home prices were up 12.6% y/y in the first quarter in Edmonton and only 2.5% in Calgary, though both have outpaced the national average of -1.2%.

The gap between Calgary and Edmonton prices is $154K (as of March 2025), still wide by historic standards but the narrowest since March 2023.

Tech takeoff - how did Alberta get itself on the global tech map?

You’ve heard about Alberta’s burgeoning tech sector (see chart of the week). But how did it happen? Miranda Mantey from ATB Ventures joined the ATB Economics team on assignment to find out.

On her mission, she interviewed key industry players and collaborated with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce to gather industry data, leading to a comprehensive report. The report showcases Alberta's tech success and serves as a case study on how a resource-based economy can build on its strengths, innovate, and attract talent and capital.

Check out the report here!

Bank of Canada - Buying time with scenarios

If only you would give me just a little more time

Give me just a little more time

Give me just a little more time

Give me just a little more time to prove it to you

“Give me more time,” Whitesnake

That was unusual. The Bank of Canada did not publish a forecast in their Monetary Policy Report in their ‘pause’ decision Wednesday, instead electing to go with two scenarios.

Our interpretation: They need more time to figure out how this trade war will play out.

In the first scenario, Canada will fare relatively well with growth just above 1.5% and inflation at target. The second one is gloomy, pointing to a recession and a bout of higher inflation, returning to target in late 2026 and 2027.

We’re in the forecasting business ourselves, so can understand the Bank’s conundrum. It’s a tough time to make a call. Still, we were expecting more guidance on the most probable path forward. Perhaps a ‘base case’ scenario to accompany the high/low?

In short, we didn’t learn much other than the Bank sees the outlook as highly uncertain (the Monetary Policy Report uses the word ‘uncertainty’ 49 times) and will take it one meeting at a time, looking at the economic data.

Taking an average of the two scenarios produces a base case real GDP forecast for Canada that’s similar to ours—though we’re lower for 2025 (+0.6%) and higher for 2026 (+1.2%).

For the record, we thought it would be a close call, but we were leaning towards a cut. Our thought was that the Bank will likely cut anyway, why not do it now to get in front of the trade headwinds? To understand this logic, check out my ‘behind the scenes’ discussion with Mark Johnson, Managing Director & Head, Rates at ATB Capital Markets on Monday.

Looking ahead, we think there are further cuts, but the BofC is constrained by inflation pressure from tariffs. For now, we’re keeping our call of 2% by year end.

Interesting Fact: Homes for new arrivals

There were 246,332 new dwelling units created in Alberta between 2018 and 2024. Over the same period, 696,140 residents were added to the provincial population. That works out to an average of a little over 2.8 new residents per new dwelling unit.

Chart of the Week: Alberta tech revolution

Released this morning, An Innovation Revolution: How Alberta Is Building the Future of Tech details the remarkable advancement of Alberta's technology sector. The report highlights Alberta's journey from its early stages to its current position as a burgeoning tech hub.

As our Chart of the Week shows, between 2013 and 2023, the output (real GDP) of the tech sector* grew three and half times faster (+38%) than the overall Alberta economy (+11%). Strong growth was also found in a variety of other indicators, like employment and venture capital.

There have been other reports on Alberta’s tech sector. Our goal was to describe how it happened over three distinct periods starting in 2000, using a combination of interviews with key players, a review of previous studies, and in-depth data analysis in partnership with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

This report, by Miranda Mantey from ATB Ventures, shows a sector that has been resilient to economic cycles, built on existing energy strengths, and expanded into other areas like AgriTech, FinTech, HealthTech, and AerospaceTech.