indicatorAdvice for Alberta businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic

Living in a COVID Economy: Four scenarios for the second half of 2020

By ATB Financial 25 June 2020

The initial shock of the COVID-19 crisis is behind us and Canadian businesses are gradually re-opening. Still, many of us have questions about what lies ahead. ATB’s Chief Economist Todd Hirsch and Managing Director of Insights and Economics Rob Roach provide insight into the current state of the economy. They’ll answer some of those questions by mapping out four scenarios that could play out over the second half of 2020. Find out which scenario is most likely, along with the warnings and opportunities that might come with it.

Four possible scenarios for Alberta's economy for the second half of 2020

Each scenario has to do with two variables; how we as a province keep implementing social distancing and following the directives from the province and Dr. Hinshaw, as well as the timing and intensity of the second wave of the virus. Because those two things, we're not quite sure what it all looks like.

The four scenarios we outline are each named after an animal, matching the characteristics of the animal with the characteristics of the scenario; the koala, the tarantula, the hippo and the grizzly bear. It’s worth noting that of those four scenarios, not all have the same probability. Which scenario are we most likely to see in Alberta’s near economic future?

Check out our insights on The Owl for a deeper look at what the future may hold.

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