Eurasia Group’s top 10 global economic and political risks for 2023 and 2024
Political risk consultant Evan Solomon outlined Eurasia Group’s top 10 global economic and political risks for 2023 and 2024 at ATB’s 2023 Business Summit.
By Evan Solomon, Senior Executive at Eurasia Group and publisher of GZERO MEDIA 22 June 2023 4 min read
Evan Solomon, Senior Executive at Eurasia Group and publisher of GZERO MEDIA, a global political risk consultant group and media company, addressed the ATB 2023 Business Summit on Eurasia Group’s top 10 global risks that will have the most influence on the economy and politics in 2023 and 2024—and what they mean to your business.
1. Rogue Russia
“Putin is in a precarious position. He knows it,” said Solomon. He’s humiliated, weakened and ready to escalate the war “in a dramatic way.” This will have consequences—energy, economic and military.
2. Maximum Xi
Chinese president Xi Jinping wants Taiwan, and with it the Taiwan Strait. Disruption of that major shipping route disrupts the global supply chain. “China wants to become the cop on the beat, and their rules suck.” Solomon believes this is the most significant choke point for geopolitical stability.
3. Weapons of mass disruption
While AI has incredible upsides, it also has incredible downsides. “There’s the capacity to create nasty things,” Solomon cautioned. And that capacity is increasing exponentially. Social, security and banking systems are targets. “You are about to see the rise of security systems in a way we have never seen, and we need to get in front of that.”
4. Inflation shockwaves
The inflation shockwave isn’t going anywhere, Solomon said. “This is the new normal.” These shockwaves will have powerful economic and political ripple effects and drive a lot of issues—and anger, with people not trusting that there are solutions.
5. Iran in a corner
Tensions between Iran and the West will only get worse. Iran is aligning even more with Russia, showing material support in the form of drones and missiles. It’s also “racing towards a nuclear bomb,” which will realign geopolitics in the Middle East.
6. Energy crunch
“Canada’s got an issue.” We have incredible oil resources, which we sell at a discount to the US. “We're just giving away our stuff. Who does that?” And it’s hurting the economy. Globally, tighter market conditions will lead to renewed price pressures on energy consumers, especially poorer countries and European governments.
7. Arrested global development
Fewer democracies exist today than 10 years ago. “We’re going backwards on democracy,” Solomon noted. Issues relating to food security, education and gender equality will follow. Rich nations will reduce development assistance, leaving the world’s poorest areas on the verge of disaster.
8. Divided states of America
The United States has two realities: red and blue. “They don’t read the same stuff. They don’t debate the same thing. They don’t have the same facts.” This division is consequential on democracy and the economy. “We’re not talking anymore. We’re lecturing each other and we’re yelling at each other.” Canada isn’t immune: it’s already facing deepening polarization and regional tensions.
9. TikTok boom
Generation Z is coming of age. The individuals of this generation have different values and needs—and they vote. Tending to be more progressive, they are reshaping corporate and public policy, demanding educational and business institutions conform to their worldview.
10. Water stress
Between climate change and geopolitical tensions, water stress presents a systemic global issue. The destruction of Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam, widely attributed to Russia, unleashed an environmental disaster. Water scarcity will trigger more conflicts and refugee flows and exacerbate food insecurity. Yet governments will treat this risk with only temporary measures.
Solomon outlined three takeaways for businesses:
F3: First, fearless, friendly
In a crisis, perspective, insight and trust are the most valuable commodities.
Be the first to offer insight and perspective to your customers. This is the most important aspect to a customer relationship. Don’t simply tell them what they probably already read about on the internet.
Be fearless in your nonpartisanship. Your customers don’t care whether you’re left or right. They care about their quality of life.
Be friendly. Try to make this complicated world more approachable for your customers.
Global and local have converged
You can’t ignore global politics risks—they affect you, and at a faster pace than ever. “What’s happening in your own backyard matters, but what’s happening in the world is just as important.” Location matters, but it’s no longer “an insurance plan.”
Alberta advantage and challenge
We may have technologies to solve problems, but we don’t have the social ingenuity to implement them properly. “Social ingenuity is significantly more important than technical ingenuity,” Solomon noted. To implement the technologies that can help us solve the crisis, we need to close that gap.
As publisher of GZERO Media and a member of the Eurasia Group management committee, Evan Solomon draws on his decades of experience in digital media, political journalism, and brand building to spearhead GZERO Media's ambiti]ous programming and platform goals. One of Canada's most experienced multi-platform journalists, Evan hosted Canada's two most popular national television news programs, CTV's Power Play and Question Period.