indicatorMarkets

Weekly Market Update - February 17, 2026

By Jason Crumley | Alek Sawchuk, CFA | Sherwin Pasha, CFA 17 February 2026 4 min read

Equity Market Commentary

The S&P 500 finished lower and the TSX Composite tracked movements in gold prices to end the week higher. The materials sector led the TSX, driven by precious metals, while the utilities sector led the S&P 500 as investors sought safety in defensive assets—highlighting the value of looking beyond the Magnificent Seven to address record concentration risk. At the end of the week, shares of logistics and freight operations companies sold off as fears of AI disruption spread to the industry.

Shares of Shopify, Canada’s largest technology company, fell 6% after reporting strong fourth-quarter revenue and forecasting current-quarter sales above expectations. This worsened the stock’s year-to-date decline to 32%. Shopify’s president highlighted that orders from AI search have risen 15-fold since January 2025. However, investors remained focused on rising costs for AI expansion, which caused an earnings miss and a disappointing cash flow outlook. The poor reaction to Shopify stock also reflects broader negative sentiment toward software stocks, as markets worry about the potential displacement threat posed by AI tools. Meanwhile, Cisco Systems shares fell 12% after providing earnings guidance that merely met estimates. This overshadowed a strong earnings beat in which core networking revenue jumped 21% year-over-year, driven by robust enterprise spending on equipment needed to support the AI boom. The market reaction to Shopify and Cisco reflect growing concerns over costs and capital spending associated with AI along with lofty investor expectations for earnings growth from these companies.

Economic data weighed on the US dollar as signs of a slowdown emerged. US retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December, missing estimates across the board with specific declines in clothing and furniture stores. This weakness highlights a growing concern that GDP growth is decoupling from employment as AI-related spending becomes the primary economic engine. More notably, year-over-year US payroll growth excluding health care and social assistance jobs turned negative in December—a signal previously seen during the COVID-19 recession, the Great Recession in 2008, and the 2001 recession following the dot-com bubble. While the January US employment report came in well ahead of expectations at 130,000 jobs, significant downward revisions to 2025 data revealed very little growth last year. Job gains continue to be driven mostly by health care and social assistance jobs, supported by a record number of Americans turning 65. However, there are worries that cutbacks in government health spending and health insurers pulling back from Medicare could soon undermine this final pillar of labour market stability.

Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei and Topix indices hit record highs after the prime minister’s party won a supermajority in snap elections, granting a clear mandate to push fiscally stimulative policies that benefit equities.

Bond Market Commentary

In bond markets, Alphabet (Google) kicked the week off with nearly $32 billion in multi-currency bond sales, diversifying funding sources across USD, Swiss Francs (CHF) and Pound Sterling (GBP), which included a historic 100-year maturity century bond—not witnessed since the .com era. The broader theme of technology giants turning to debt markets to raise hundreds of billions to fund AI projects and infrastructure continued, following Oracle’s prior week USD$ 25 billion bond sale and OpenAI seeking to raise US$100 billion in a new funding round. In other news, a stronger-than-expected US jobs report and weaker-than-expected inflation pushed back Federal Reserve rate cut expectations to June. The most recent report from the US Treasury indicates Chinese holdings of US government bonds dropped to their lowest levels since 2008. This places China as the third-largest holder of US debt behind Japan and the UK. Lastly, political developments in Japan helped stabilize longer-term Japanese Government Bond (JGB) prices.

Alphabet's historic, 100-year maturity, GBP denominated century bond was a headline focus for investors. Despite being issued during a period of UK political uncertainty and rising government debt, the £1 billion bond, rated AA+, which is a higher rating than the UK government, was met with outsized demand. It offered a 6.125% annual coupon and a premium of approximately 1.20% above the closest 50-year UK government bond. This issue was significant, as the last investment-grade century bond was issued by Motorola in 1997. While investors acknowledged the challenge of predicting the AI/tech landscape over 100 years, the bond's ultra-long duration appealed strongly to institutional investors, such as pension and life-insurance funds, who favour high-grade, long-term debt to match their liabilities, underscoring the extensive lengths technology companies are going to in order to fund massive AI infrastructure spending.

More globally, regulators in China reportedly urged banks to reduce holdings of US treasury bonds, as the US Department of Treasury data showed Chinese holding of treasuries dropped to the lowest level since 2008. Sustained Chinese selling pressure on US government bonds has broader global interest rate implications, prompting discussion over whether China will pursue a slow, gradual sale or a faster, larger-scale, approach. When a large treasury bond holder such as China offloads Treasuries, the supply of these bonds increases, causing their price to fall and their interest rate (yield) to rise, all else equal. Meanwhile, Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) performed better than expected following a landslide election win and a clearer fiscal spending path. Japan’s finance minister also suggested they wouldn’t sell new bonds to fill fiscal spending gaps, providing bond investors some support. The Japanese yen strengthened nearly 3% against the USD, which further uplifted Japanese yen denominated bond returns.

The Week Ahead

Tuesday: Cdn inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI) report

Wednesday: 

Thursday: US jobs data; Walmart earnings

Friday: US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, US inflation PCE report

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