indicatorMarkets

Weekly Market Update - March 9, 2026

By Jason Crumley | Alek Sawchuk, CFA | Sherwin Pasha, CFA 9 March 2026 5 min read

Equity Market Commentary

Canadian and US equity markets sold off last week after Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran, sparking fears of a widening war as Iran not only fired back but also retaliated against US assets in the region. The S&P 500 showed slightly more resilience than the TSX Composite, largely due to differing sector exposures. The energy sector led the S&P 500, propelled by the resulting surge in oil prices. Conversely, the materials sector acted as a severe drag on the TSX as gold prices pulled back following a recent speculative frenzy. The precious metal was pressured by rising US Treasury yields, which increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, and a strengthening US dollar. The dollar attracted safe-haven flows but dampened foreign demand for gold by making the dollar-priced metal more expensive.

While the primary tragedy of this conflict remains the devastating human toll and loss of life across the region, the conflict has also triggered significant disruptions in global energy markets. The disputed closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to restrict roughly 20 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids or roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. This sent WTI crude prices surging above US$90 per barrel and pushed European gas prices to their highest levels since the invasion of Ukraine. The situation is exacerbated by insurers cancelling war risk coverage for vessels and widespread airport closures across the Middle East. The conflict also poses a severe risk to the region's water infrastructure.

Not only does the Gulf region export crude oil, but the area has a number of refineries that refine crude oil into various petroleum products such as gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel. Most of this crude oil and refined product is destined for Asia, with China, Japan, India, and South Korea accounting for nearly 70% of shipments through the Strait according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). It won’t be long before these regions experience shortages in gasoline, diesel and jet fuel—leading to major price increases. The war in Iran is already impacting oil shipments and production in the region and this supply disruption is leading to dramatic increases in the price of oil globally. 

Oil price surges are raising concerns about an inflationary spike before previous inflation has been fully defeated. This anxiety was echoed in US economic data, where the prices paid component of the ISM manufacturing index rose to its highest level since 2022, with reports noting that tariffs are pushing up costs. However, these inflationary pressures contrasted with sudden labour market weakness, as the US unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February, pushing unemployment to 4.4% and reigniting stagflation fears. Broadcom shares jumped 4.8% after beating earnings forecasts. AI revenue more than doubled on strong demand for AI accelerators and networking, with the CEO projecting AI chip revenue to well exceed US$100 billion in 2027—surpassing Wall Street’s bullish estimates. Blackrock shares tumbled 7% after limiting client withdrawals on its US$26 billion private credit fund, sparking contagion fears that dragged down its private credit peers. Meanwhile, Costco shares rose 1.6% after delivering earnings ahead of estimates, fuelled by a nearly 14% surge in membership fees and a 22% jump in digital sales.

Bond Market Commentary

In bond markets, rising Middle Eastern tensions drove oil and gas prices higher, fuelling energy-induced inflation expectations. Consequently, longer-term bond prices in both the US and Canada witnessed one of their worst weeks since “Liberation Day.” This inflationary concern due to rising oil prices has reduced the probability of a rate cut in the US, scheduled to be announced by the Federal Reserve on March 18, 2026. Despite a volatile start to the week, Baker Hughes Co. looked to raise USD$10 billion total in a cross-border bond sale to fund an acquisition of Chart Industries Inc., and Eaton Corp. raised USD$8.5 billion for an AI-data centre related acquisition of Boyd Thermal. Separately, JPMorgan Chase led the debt financing syndicate for a record-breaking USD$55 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts Inc. by private equity firms Silver Lake Management, Saudi Arabia’s public investment fund, and Affinity Partners. Private credit risk remained a key discussion point, as Blackstone’s global head of private credit addressed a record 7.9% quarterly redemption on their flagship private credit fund. 

Increased focus on private credit risks led Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem to call for greater regulatory surveillance of non-bank (such as hedge fund) lending to maintain global financial stability. From a retail standpoint, private credit funds, while paying investors a premium for illiquidity, are often misunderstood due to their restrictive capital lock-up periods and strict redemption guidelines. Late last week, one of BlackRock’s largest private credit funds, the US$26 billion HPS Corporate lending fund, capped withdrawals at 5%. Bloomberg reported that shareholders requested 9.3% of their funds. Goldman Sachs' co-credit chief emphasized that limited withdrawals are "intended features" that allow private credit funds to better achieve investment objectives, while avoiding forced fire sales at discounted prices. This illiquidity challenge is underscored by a recent flurry of redemption requests, particularly from funds exposed to the AI-disrupted software loan industry, such as Blackstone's flagship fund battling a record 7.9% in redemptions (exceeding its quarterly 5% limit) and Blue Owl Capital, which previously had a 15% net asset redemption request requiring a forced-sale of USD$1.4 billion of portfolio loans for liquidity. Consequently, private credit investors should carefully scrutinize the underlying loan assets and clearly understand these established lock-up periods and redemption features prior to investing, all-while ensuring alignment with their intended risk tolerance.

In new bond issuances, Baker Hughes Co. planned to raise US$10 billion total through a cross-border sale of euro and US dollar bonds to help fund its acquisition of Chart Industries Inc. The proceeds are intended to replace a yearly loan facility, making this one of the larger potential offerings in the high-grade bond market since the Iran disruption slowed new bond issues earlier in the week; the acquisition will expand the company’s reach into liquified natural gas (LNG), data centres, and technology. Separately, Eaton Corp. sought to raise around USD$8 billion from a six-part bond sale, with maturities ranging from 2 to 30 years (and the 2056 maturity bond priced to yield an expected 0.78% above treasuries), to fund its pending USD$9.5 billion acquisition of Boyd Thermal, a liquid cooling specialist tied to AI data centre application.

The Week Ahead

Tuesday: Oracle earnings 

Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation

Thursday: Dollar General Corp, Adobe earnings

Friday: Canadian unemployment rate, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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