Weekly Market Update - February 23, 2026
By Jason Crumley | Alek Sawchuk, CFA | Sherwin Pasha, CFA 23 February 2026 4 min read
Equity Market Commentary
In a holiday-shortened week due to President’s Day, North American equity markets finished slightly higher as investors balanced geopolitical anxieties with a resilient corporate earnings season. Overseas markets in Asia were also relatively quiet due to the Lunar New Year celebrations. A rebound in Shopify shares lifted the information technology sector to lead the TSX Composite, while the industrials sector led the S&P 500. WTI crude oil prices climbed above US$66 per barrel following tense negotiations between the US and Iran. The US deployment of additional military vessels to the Middle East has heightened the risk of regional conflict, keeping energy markets on edge. The US Supreme Court ruled 6 - 3 to reject President Trump’s tariffs saying that he exceeded his authority by invoking the federal emergency powers law. Bloomberg reported that the refunds from the US federal government could total as much as US$170 billion and place additional strain on the US’s budget. While broad equity market reaction was subdued, shares of some companies that rely heavily on foreign manufacturing (such as Nike) jumped higher on the news.
As the earnings season comes to a close, over 74% of S&P 500 companies have now reported, with blended fourth-quarter year-over-year earnings growth standing at an impressive 13.2%. If this pace holds, it will mark the index's fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
In corporate news, cracks emerged in the alternative investment space. Blue Owl Capital shares dropped 6%, bringing the stock’s one-year decline to 52%, after the firm permanently halted redemptions at one of its private credit funds aimed at retail investors. This sparked contagion fears, dragging down peers like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management. The disruption highlights concerns with retail investors that may require greater liquidity compared to the long time horizon of institutional investors. While private investments are generally much more illiquid compared to their public counterparts, Blue Owl has effectively told investors in this fund that they will not be able to withdraw their funds at this time. The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years and was expected to grow into the trillions of dollars. Palo Alto Networks fell 6.8% despite beating earnings estimates, pressured by a weaker-than-expected current-quarter forecast. The cybersecurity giant remains on an aggressive spending spree to combat AI-fuelled threats, having just closed its US$25 billion acquisition of Israeli identity security platform CyberArk and announcing a US$400 million deal for Israeli startup Koi, aimed at securing AI agents against more sophisticated cyberattacks.
The media consolidation battle raged on as Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance shares rose 2.7% and 5%, respectively. Warner Bros. temporarily reopened deal talks with Paramount, setting the stage for a potential second round of bidding against Netflix, even as Warner’s board of directors formally recommended shareholders reject Paramount’s latest offer.
Bond Market Commentary
In bond markets, US corporate issuers continued to enjoy favourable financing rates, which spurred a slew of fresh corporate bond issuances from a diverse range of issuers, including Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar Financial, and Equinix Inc., the latter extending a wave of borrowing to fund AI data centre infrastructure. Internationally, UK government bonds, or Gilts, struggled to rally despite slowing UK headline inflation, which was largely attributed to volatile fuel prices, minimizing the perceived need for an immediate Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. Japan’s largest life insurance company, Nippon Life Insurance, saw swelling unrealized capital bond losses to the tune of US$35 billion, as the country continues to face political challenges and sticky inflation. Life insurance companies in Japan frequently hold long-term bonds and the rapid rise in Japanese interest rates pushed the price of these long-term bonds down significantly. Financial reporting obligations caused these life insurance companies to mark the value of their bond holdings to current market prices, which led to the unrealized loss. Notably, Bank of America (BoA) invested $25 billion of its own capital into private credit markets, following a trend of Wall Street firms. Blue Owl Capital Inc.'s situation served as a cautionary example of the inherent risks in private credit investing, specifically the challenges that arise with retail redemptions despite the illiquidity premium investors receive.
US corporate investment grade credit spreads, which measure the additional yield (risk premium) investors demand for taking on the credit risk of corporate bond issuers over lower-risk government bonds, are currently around 0.77%, lows not seen since late 2024. Amidst this backdrop, last week featured a few notable two-part bond deals. Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp. issued a US$1.1 billion debt sale with 2028 and 2031 maturities, priced to yield 1.85% and 2.60% above US Treasuries, respectively, with proceeds intended to repay outstanding debt and for general corporate purposes. Separately, Caterpillar Financial launched a US$1.3 billion two-part deal with 2029 maturities, consisting of a fixed-rate and floating-rate bond. Lastly, Equinix Inc. sought to raise US$1.5 billion in a two-part deal to fund AI data centre infrastructure and additional corporate needs.
BoA’s recent $25 billion investment in the private credit space followed other major Wall Street firms such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs who have expanded private credit commitments. However, heightened competition in the growing multi-trillion dollar space, on a backdrop of a declining interest rate environment in the US, may encourage private credit managers to pursue riskier, higher-interest loans to maintain returns. Additionally, private credit opacity has been a boon for private credit in the sense that less-frequent valuations smoothed out volatility and looked past cycles and large swings experienced in public debt markets. However, the collapse of Tricolor holdings (sub-prime auto lender) and First Brand Groups (global auto supplier) in late 2025 should serve as a stark reminder of systematic risk events that can take place in private credit markets.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday: US consumer confidence, Eurozone inflation
Wednesday: Nvidia earnings
Thursday: US jobless claims
Friday: US producer price index (PPI) and CA Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
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