Weekly Market Update - October 5, 2026
By Jason Crumley | Alek Sawchuk, CFA | Sherwin Pasha, CFA 5 October 2026 5 min read
Equity Market Commentary
Last week, North American equity markets retreated as long-term US Treasury yields surged to multi-decade highs. This relentless spike in borrowing costs weighed on equities, pressuring rate-sensitive sectors in the S&P 500 such as real estate and financials. With government bond yields offering increasingly compelling returns, a debate is beginning to surface over whether bonds now provide better value than stocks.
Nike shares declined to a 13-year low as revenue and guidance fell short of expectations. Nike is facing a number of challenges as the company’s profitability is being challenged by both a declining revenue profile and tighter margins. The company continues to face a significant tariff headwind in the US, costing the company billions of dollars. As a result, the company announced a restructuring plan anticipated to save US$2.5 billion in the next five years. In other news in the consumer discretionary sector, shares of Carnival jumped 13% after the company raised its full-year profit outlook and reported record 2027 bookings and pricing. Carnival successfully offset elevated fuel costs through improved operational efficiency and higher ticket fares, reassuring investors and sparking a rally across competing cruise lines.
Wearable health monitoring company Oura, makers of the Oura ring, postponed its planned September 29 initial public offering (IPO). The company stated that it is seeing uncertainty in the IPO market. While investors were surprised by the pause, Oura’s decision to delay its IPO offers insight on the lack of institutional risk appetite for new issues at this time.
In the energy sector, Shell shares fell 1.4% after the company greenlit the $33 billion Phase 2 expansion of LNG Canada. While doubling capacity to 28 million tonnes per annum makes it the world's second-largest LNG facility and cements Canada as a major global exporter, the massive capital outlay and a development timeline stretching into the early 2030s slightly weighed on investor sentiment.
The AI boom continues. Micron shares rose 3% after reporting revenues that more than quadrupled and forecasting next-quarter sales well above estimates. Driven by soaring demand for high-bandwidth memory chips, which remain the primary bottleneck in AI infrastructure, the company has seen orders far exceed current supply and plans to raise capital spending to expand global manufacturing capacity. The stock has more than tripled this year.
Similarly, Accenture shares surged 16% after forecasting annual revenue growth above estimates, alleviating market fears that AI would disrupt traditional IT consulting. The strong guidance lifted shares of IT service peers across the sector as enterprise clients turn to external partners for AI adoption and automation.
Bond Market Commentary
Last week, longer-term bond prices declined pushing yields to multi-decade highs, driven in part by persistent inflation concerns and resilient US economic data. Yields on 30-year US Treasuries rose to 5.63%, the highest since 2002. In Europe, the UK 30-year Gilt yield hit 6% for the first time since 1998, while France’s political uncertainty and fiscal strains widened euro-area risk premiums. Lastly, a record-breaking US$52 billion debt package came to market from a major global mass media and entertainment company.
In the US, economic data reinforced a higher-for-longer monetary policy stance. The US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to a 12-year low, weighed down by elevated energy prices, stagnating wages, and geopolitical risks surrounding ongoing Middle East tensions. Upward revisions to Q2 US gross domestic product (GDP) data, a measure of economic activity, and robust August consumer spending—which grew at its fastest pace in over a year—highlighted underlying economic resilience and reduced the urgency for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes. In response to the combined data, swap markets reduced the implied probability of a 25-basis point October rate hike from 54% the week prior to 21%.
In corporate news, Paramount Skydance dominated headlines by pricing a massive US$52 billion debt package to fund its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery—one of the largest M&A financing deals of 2026. According to Bloomberg, the bond offering featured a US$30 billion investment-grade bond sale across eight tranches, spanning two- to 40-year maturities, rated BBB- by Fitch. The longest-dated 40-year investment grade bond was priced to yield roughly 9.033%, approximately 325 basis points above risk-free treasuries. Investment grade coupons ranged from 6.3% to 8.75%. The debt package also included a US$12.4 billion high-yield offering rated BB by Fitch and term loan facilities totaling US$8.5 billion and €840 million. According to Bloomberg, the roughly three-month lawsuit-driven delay forced Paramount to borrow in the current higher yield environment, costing the company hundreds of millions in incremental interest over the debt’s life.
Chart of the week
In September 2026, the S&P 500 index decreased 0.45%, as a surge in long-term yields created a headwind for rate-sensitive sectors, such as consumer discretionary and real estate, and commodity-linked sectors such as materials faced rising input cost pressures from the Middle East war. This was slightly offset by stronger technology sector performance—as AMD hit a US$1 trillion market capitalization, joining other chipmakers like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron in the exclusive US$1 trillion club. Despite the index’s negative overall performance, fund flows across ETFs passively tracking the S&P 500 were notably mixed.
The State Street SPDR ETF (SPY) led monthly inflows, while the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) experienced top outflows. This divergence likely reflected tactical reallocations by institutional investors, with SPY outflows further influenced by speculative trading given its highly active options market. Outside the S&P 500, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF recorded net outflows. This likely reflected the Nasdaq 100's higher concentration in tech and growth stocks, which are particularly sensitive to rising interest rates. By the end of September, the 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.29%—its highest level since 2007—increasing borrowing costs and compressing the value of future earnings growth for long-duration equities.
In fixed income, September brought a bond selloff that pushed long-term yields to multi-decade highs, while the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in over three years. In response, the shorter-duration iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) saw strong inflows, reflecting heightened demand for cash-management tools. Meanwhile, the iShares Core Universal Bond ETF (IUSB) attracted capital as investors sought broad fixed income diversification exposure across treasuries, agencies, investment-grade corporates, and a small slice of high yield debt.
The Week Ahead
Monday: S&P Global US composite PMI
Tuesday: Constellation Brands earnings
Wednesday: Applied Digital earnings
Thursday: PepsiCo earnings
Friday: Cdn unemployment rate data, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Delta Air Lines earnings
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