Weekly Market Update - July 27, 2026
By Jason Crumley | Alek Sawchuk, CFA | Sherwin Pasha, CFA 27 July 2026 4 min read
Equity Market Commentary
North American equity markets diverged last week as the S&P 500 fell under the weight of rising bond yields and poor earnings reactions from Alphabet (Google) and Tesla. Conversely, the TSX Composite closed slightly higher, lifted by a surge in the materials sector due to higher precious metals prices. The energy sector followed close behind as WTI crude oil prices crossed US$90 per barrel amid the escalating US-Iran conflict and a new Houthi embargo on Saudi exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a chokepoint handling 12% of global oil shipments in 2023, per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The resulting rally also drove the energy sector to lead the S&P 500.
Adding to local anxieties, the US announced plans to impose a new 50% tariff on many Canadian goods over alcohol and dairy disputes. While key exports like energy, potash, and critical minerals are exempt, the levy coincides with President Trump replacing expiring temporary duties with new 10% to 12.5% tariffs covering 99.4% of US trade. This renewed protectionist stance injects fresh uncertainty into cross-border supply chains.
Market sentiment turned critical of multi-billion-dollar AI buildouts. Tesla shares tumbled 14.5% after missing profit estimates and reporting its first quarterly negative cash flow in over two years. Despite record vehicle deliveries spurred by higher fuel prices, Tesla's core auto business struggled under lower selling prices, rising competition, and shrinking regulatory credit revenue. Meanwhile, capital expenditures more than doubled versus the same quarter last year as CEO Elon Musk accelerated investments in Full Self-Driving, robotaxis, and humanoid robots. With annual capital expenditure projected to surpass US$25 billion and the CFO warning that negative free cash flow will deepen in the second half, investors increasingly questioned how fast these massive AI bets can be monetized while core margins shrink.
Similarly, Alphabet shares fell 7% after posting negative free cash flow for the first time in the company’s history and expanding its 2026 capital expenditure budget by US$15 billion to a staggering US$195–$205 billion. Record Google Cloud growth was overshadowed by mounting infrastructure expenses and delayed rollouts of its Gemini 3.5 Pro model. With CEO Sundar Pichai acknowledging gaps in AI coding tools as compute resources shift to training Gemini 4, the historic cash burn amplified market alarm.
Together, Tesla and Alphabet signal a broader market inflection point where aggressive AI capital expenditures are pushing Big Tech into unprecedented cash drains, leaving investors notably impatient to see these investments turned into profits.
Bond Market Commentary
Last week, escalating US-Iran tensions triggered a global bond selloff, driving yields higher as investors weighed energy price inflation and revised central bank rate hike expectations. The two-year US Treasury yield rose around 16 basis points to close the week at 4.34%. Ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision, swap markets priced the probability of a rate hike to roughly 37%, up from 15% the week prior, with expectations for at least one 25-basis-point rate increase by year-end. Globally, UK government bonds (gilts) faced selling pressure following fiscal flexibility concerns. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced its latest rate decision. Lastly, Blackstone expanded its private asset offerings in partnership with Wellington Management and Vanguard.
The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady at 2.25%, as expected. According to Bloomberg, markets priced in a roughly 90% probability for a 25-basis-point hike at the next rate decision in September. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the bank will remain data-dependent. The ECB further re-iterated that they are not pre-committed to a particular rate path, while navigating ongoing geopolitical and energy market uncertainty from the Middle East conflict.
In the UK, gilts experienced a selloff alongside broader market volatility driven by rising energy costs. Additionally, investors evaluated comments from the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, which signaled a preference for utilizing flexibility within existing fiscal rules ahead of the autumn budget—a move weighed against the backdrop of the UK’s already higher-debt and spending landscape. The 30-year UK gilt yield closed at 5.73%, the highest level since late May.
Blackstone partnered with Wellington Management and Vanguard to launch two new private market funds, extending access to private credit, equity, infrastructure, and real estate to accredited Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank clients. Mark Sutterlin, head of alternative investments at Merrill and Bank of America, highlighted the rising client demand for private market access. While these private assets offer valuable diversification benefits and the potential for higher risk-adjusted returns, they carry distinct risks. Against a backdrop of private credit industry concerns regarding lending standards, valuation transparency, and quarterly redemption pressures, investors must carefully weigh and understand the inherent realities of private funds, including strict capital lock-up periods and potential challenges accessing capital in a timely manner.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday: Cdn gross domestic product (GDP), US consumer confidence survey, Nike earnings
Wednesday: US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Thursday: Cdn S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, US unemployment rate
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