If you’ve turned on the news or looked at your grocery bill lately, it’s natural to feel a bit of economic fatigue. Between shifting global politics, talk of trade tariffs, and the relentless rise in the cost of living, the world can feel a little chaotic.

But according to Mark Parsons, Chief Economist at ATB Financial, there is a distinct path forward for Alberta—and it comes with a healthy dose of cautious optimism.

At ATB’s fifth annual Business Summit held recently in Edmonton, Parsons broke down the numbers in his presentation titled “Waiting on the world to change?”. The biggest takeaway for everyday Albertans? While the global engine is undergoing a massive shift, Alberta has some unique structural strengths to help us shake off the noise.

Moving Past the Initial Shock

This time last year, headlines were dominated by existential dread over sweeping U.S. tariffs. Today, we are living in a "new normal" where countries are increasingly looking inward. Geopolitics have become the central force dictating how the world does business, from U.S. protectionism to major shifts in global energy groups like OPEC.

Closer to home, the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is bound to create plenty of political theatre. But the advice from trade experts at the summit was simple: tune out the noise. Even if discussions get bumpy, our foundational trade agreements aren't falling apart overnight, and financial markets are proving resilient. Furthermore, because Alberta’s primary export is energy, our province remains relatively insulated compared to eastern provinces navigating steel and aluminum pressures.

Look Under the Hood: The Reality of the Daily Grind

While the markets are holding steady, things look a bit different when you examine the national economy from a household level. Over the last decade, Canada’s real economic growth per person has been sluggish. For a long time, consumer and government spending carried the weight, while business investments and international exports lagged behind.

Today, an overwhelming 66% of Canadians point to the rising cost of living as the single most important issue facing the country. This affordability crunch is actively reshaping our communities—evident in the growing number of young adults moving back or staying longer with their parents to save on housing costs.

With inflation still feeling the pressure of global supply shocks, the Bank of Canada cannot simply drop interest rates to ultra-low levels to relieve consumers. The policy interest rate is expected to hold steady at 2.25% this year, with a closer eye on keeping energy-driven inflation from trickling down into everyday goods.

The True Advantage Comes From Driving Shared Growth

So, where does cautious optimism come from? The upside in the  economic forecast doesn’t come from waiting for global volatility to settle; it comes from what’s possible within Canada’s borders. 

As Canada works toward its ambitious goal to double non-U.S. exports over the next ten years, Alberta is uniquely positioned to help propel that national charge through a few key engines:

• Infrastructure: Western Canada is proving it can deliver major infrastructure. The completion of the Trans Mountain expansion (TMX) sent oil exports to Asia on a massive surge—from near-zero in 2023 to $9 billion last year. Similar momentum is building with projects like LNG Canada Phase 1, strengthening Canada's position in global markets.
• AI: The booming AI sector requires a staggering amount of power to run data centers. Western Canada’s vast natural gas reserves, paired with our world-class AI research institutions, place the region at the center of this global tech shift.
• Food and Tourism: The prairies are rapidly transforming raw agricultural commodities into high-value global products. Major private investments—like McCain Foods manufacturing buildouts—are turning the region into a food processing hub. Meanwhile, international tourism is taking flight as expanded airport capacities welcome global visitors to the Canadian Rockies and beyond.

The Bottom Line

The global economic landscape has fundamentally shifted, and we can’t sit back and wait for the world to change. But by streamlining our own regulations, supporting local investments, and leaning into our natural advantages in energy, tech, and agriculture, Alberta is setting a new pace.

It’s time to lace up our running shoes and confidently chart our own path forward.